The market strongly favors that Elon Musk will post fewer than 240 tweets during the specified dates.
With a market probability of 99.85% for 'NO', the consensus is that Elon Musk will not exceed 240 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, indicating a strong belief in this outcome, though with slightly higher uncertainty. The edge of 3.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current data.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 28 12:00 PM ET to March 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.