Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?

The market strongly favors that Elon Musk will post fewer than 240 tweets during the specified dates.

With a market probability of 99.85% for 'NO', the consensus is that Elon Musk will not exceed 240 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, indicating a strong belief in this outcome, though with slightly higher uncertainty. The edge of 3.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer than 240 tweets.
• 2 The probability of YES is extremely low at 0.15%.
• 3 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for YES at 3.65%.
• 4 The market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.
• 5 There is moderate confidence in the prediction with a score of 60/100.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 28 12:00 PM ET to March 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.