Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

The market strongly favors that Elon Musk will not post 240+ tweets during the specified period.

With a market probability of 99.85% for 'NO', it suggests a strong consensus against the likelihood of Musk posting over 240 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, indicating limited expectations for such high tweet activity within the given timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The low probability of 'YES' indicates skepticism about Musk's tweeting frequency.
• 3 Historical behavior of Musk's tweeting patterns may inform expectations.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with a slight edge noted.
• 5 Time pressure of 73 hours may limit any drastic shifts in probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 30 12:00 PM ET to April 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.