Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?

The market strongly favors that Elon Musk will not post 240+ tweets during the specified dates.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus against Musk posting 240+ tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026. The Pulse AI probability also supports this view, indicating a low likelihood of such high tweet activity within the given timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Musk tweeting 240+ times.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests low expectations for Musk's tweet volume.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns indicate Musk typically does not reach such high tweet counts in short periods.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in the current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal, with only 6 hours until market expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 7 12:00 PM ET to March 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.