Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to tweet 260-279 times in the specified week.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the NO outcome, indicating skepticism about Elon Musk's tweeting frequency during this period. With a market probability of 93.5% for NO, it suggests that participants do not expect him to reach the specified tweet count, while the AI probability aligns closely, further reinforcing this sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probabilities from market and AI are closely aligned, suggesting stability.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk indicate lower activity in similar timeframes.
• 4 The market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 2.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 24 12:00 PM ET to March 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.