Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

The market favors fewer than 260 tweets from Musk during the specified week.

With a market probability of 88.5% for NO, participants largely expect Elon Musk to tweet less than 260 times from March 31 to April 7, 2026. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a consensus that supports this outlook. Given the confidence level of 75/100, the market appears to be fairly priced with minimal expected volatility.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors fewer tweets than projected.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest a low likelihood of high tweet volume.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is well-aligned with AI predictions.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in the outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, potentially increasing market volatility.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.