Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Low likelihood of Elon Musk posting 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 280-299 tweets during the specified period, with a probability of only 8% for this outcome. The AI model slightly adjusts this to 10%, but both sources suggest a low likelihood of this event occurring, reflecting a general skepticism about such high tweet volume in that timeframe.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong NO sentiment at 92%.
• 2 Pulse AI slightly favors NO at 90%, indicating alignment with market views.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 218 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced based on current data.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 13 12:00 PM ET to March 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.