Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Market strongly predicts Musk will not post 280-299 tweets during the specified week.

The prediction market indicates a 100% probability that Elon Musk will not post between 280 and 299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026. With a high confidence level of 95/100 and a low AI probability of 1% for a YES outcome, the market appears to be fairly priced. This suggests a strong consensus among participants regarding Musk's tweeting behavior during this period.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the likelihood of Musk posting 280-299 tweets.
• 2 The market probability shows a complete consensus with NO at 100%.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may support the low probability of high tweet volume.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting strong participant confidence.
• 5 The time to expiry is unknown, but the current confidence level is high.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 17 12:00 PM ET to March 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.