Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 280 tweets from Musk during the specified week.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will post fewer than 280 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026, with a probability of 88.5% for the NO outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a slight increase in the likelihood of more tweets but still favoring the NO outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors fewer tweets from Musk.
• 2 The probability gap between YES and NO indicates a consensus on lower activity.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may support the NO outcome.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current probabilities.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 242 hours until expiry, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.