Will Elon Musk post 30-39 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 30-39 times in March 2026.

The prediction market shows a 100% probability for NO, indicating a strong consensus against the likelihood of Elon Musk posting 30-39 tweets during the specified period. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal expectation for such activity. The confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in this assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Musk tweeting 30-39 times.
• 2 The market probability of YES is at 0%, indicating no confidence in that outcome.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance of YES at 2%, but this is minimal.
• 4 The edge of 2 implies the market is fairly priced with little room for mispricing.
• 5 Confidence level of 65/100 reflects a moderate certainty in the NO prediction.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 10 12:00 PM ET to March 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.