Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 300 tweets from Musk during the specified week.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Elon Musk will post fewer than 300 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026, with a market probability of 89.5% for the NO outcome. The AI model also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability strongly favors the NO outcome.
• 2 AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating consensus.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to the market dynamics.
• 5 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may inform future behavior.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 10 12:00 PM ET to March 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.