Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 300 tweets from Musk in late March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will post fewer than 300 tweets during the specified period, with an 88.5% probability for the NO outcome. The AI model also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of reaching the 300-319 tweet range.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 AI model slightly more optimistic about the YES outcome than the market.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 244 hours, adding urgency.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 24 12:00 PM ET to March 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.