Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 300 tweets from Elon Musk during the specified period.

The prediction market indicates a strong preference for Elon Musk posting fewer than 300 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026, with a probability of 76.05% for the NO outcome. The AI model's probabilities are slightly higher for YES, suggesting some uncertainty, but overall confidence remains moderate at 75/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards fewer tweets.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests some divergence in expectations.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns may influence future predictions.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate, indicating some uncertainty in outcomes.
• 5 Time pressure is low with 42 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 3 12:00 PM ET to March 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.