Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to tweet 320-339 times in the specified period.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the 'NO' outcome, indicating that participants believe Elon Musk will tweet fewer than 320 times from March 13 to March 20, 2026. The market probability of 90.5% for 'NO' suggests a consensus that aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment, which also favors the 'NO' outcome but with slightly higher uncertainty.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 90.5%, indicating low expected tweet volume.
• 2 Pulse AI reflects similar sentiment with a 88.5% probability for 'NO'.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced without significant mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is 209 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment before the deadline.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 13 12:00 PM ET to March 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.