Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not tweet 320-339 times in the specified period.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will not post between 320 and 339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026, with an 88.5% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a slight increase in the likelihood of 'YES' but still favoring 'NO' overall.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 3 Musk's tweeting patterns may influence future probabilities.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 227 hours.
• 5 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.