Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 340 tweets from Musk in late March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will post fewer than 340 tweets during the specified period, with a probability of 89.5% for 'NO.' The AI's assessment aligns closely, suggesting a consensus that Musk's tweeting activity will be lower than the threshold.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors fewer tweets from Musk.
• 2 Market probability indicates a strong consensus against reaching the tweet threshold.
• 3 The edge suggests the market is fairly priced with minimal arbitrage opportunity.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 reflects moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 24 12:00 PM ET to March 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.