Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets in April 2026?

The market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 340 tweets in April 2026.

With a market probability of 99.75% for NO and a Pulse AI probability of 96.25% for the same outcome, there is a strong consensus against Musk posting 340-359 tweets in April 2026. The edge of 3.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, indicating limited room for significant shifts in sentiment at this time.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer than 340 tweets.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower activity levels.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current probabilities.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in behavior.
• 5 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.