Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Low probability of Elon Musk posting 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026.

The market indicates a strong likelihood that Elon Musk will not post between 380 and 399 tweets during the specified period, with a 92% probability for 'NO.' This aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment, suggesting a consensus on the expected tweet volume being lower than the threshold.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 92%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability slightly higher for 'YES' at 10%, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, reflecting some reliability in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 314 hours, which may influence market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 17 12:00 PM ET to March 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.