Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

The market strongly favors that Musk will post fewer than 380 tweets during the specified week.

With a market probability of 96.65% for NO, participants largely believe that Elon Musk will not tweet between 380-399 times from March 20 to March 27, 2026. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a consensus that the volume of tweets will be lower than expected. The confidence level of 75/100 suggests a moderate degree of certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 96.65%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight increase in YES probability at 5.35%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 reflects moderate certainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 242 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.