Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Market favors NO on Musk posting 380-399 tweets from March 6-13, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong preference for NO, with an 89% probability against Musk posting 380-399 tweets during the specified period. The market appears fairly priced, as the edge is minimal, suggesting that participants have a balanced view of the likelihood of this outcome. With a confidence level of 75 out of 100, there is moderate certainty in the current sentiment.

• 1 Current market probability shows a strong lean towards NO.
• 2 The market edge indicates fair pricing with minimal mispricing risk.
• 3 Participants exhibit moderate confidence in the NO outcome.
• 4 Time until expiry is short at 99 hours, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence future expectations.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 6 12:00 PM ET to March 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.