Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 380-399 times in March 2026.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.95% for NO, indicating a strong consensus against Musk posting 380-399 tweets in March 2026. The Pulse AI also supports this view, with a probability of 97.95% for NO, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with an edge of 2. The confidence level of 80/100 reflects a solid belief in this outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO with minimal support for YES.
• 2 The low probability for YES suggests little expectation for high tweet volume.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence future predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, indicating confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to the prediction.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.