Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

The market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 tweets during the specified week.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, there is a strong consensus that Elon Musk will not post between 40-59 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026. The Pulse AI probability also supports this view, indicating a low likelihood of such tweet activity. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer than 40 tweets.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests low expectations for Musk's tweet volume.
• 3 Historical patterns indicate Musk's tweeting behavior typically varies widely.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in the current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 227 hours until the market's expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.