The market strongly favors that Musk will not post 40-59 tweets during the specified period.
Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability that Elon Musk will not post between 40-59 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this view, suggesting a very low likelihood of the YES outcome. Overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with high confidence in the NO prediction.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 3 12:00 PM ET to March 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.