Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 40-59 times in early April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability (0.05%) of Elon Musk posting 40-59 tweets during the specified week, with a consensus leaning heavily towards NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 2.05%, suggesting a minor divergence in expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the likelihood of Musk tweeting frequently.
• 2 The probability of YES is low, indicating minimal expectation for high tweet volume.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced, with a small edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, suggesting some uncertainty remains.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 245 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.