Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in April 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 40-59 times in April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.85%) that Elon Musk will not post 40-59 tweets in April 2026. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability, which also suggests a low likelihood of this outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower tweet volumes.
• 3 Market liquidity is stable, reflecting confidence in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Pulse AI probability indicates a slight chance for YES, but still low.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.