Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in March 2026?

The market strongly favors that Musk will not post 40-59 tweets in March 2026.

Current market data indicates a 100% probability that Elon Musk will not post between 40 to 59 tweets in March 2026. The AI model also reflects a low probability of 2% for this outcome, suggesting a consensus that aligns with the market's stance. With a high confidence level of 85/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against Musk tweeting 40-59 times.
• 2 AI model aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low likelihood.
• 3 High confidence level suggests stability in current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 549 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market appears to be efficiently priced with minimal edge.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.