Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 40 tweets from Musk between March 14-16, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will post fewer than 40 tweets during the specified period, with a 90% probability for the NO outcome. The AI model slightly adjusts this probability, suggesting a marginally higher chance for YES at 13.5%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Current market consensus strongly favors fewer than 40 tweets.
• 2 The prediction market appears to be fairly priced based on the edge of 3.5.
• 3 AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for more tweets than the market indicates.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 47 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 14 12:00 PM ET to March 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.