Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 40 tweets from Musk during the specified dates.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will post fewer than 40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026, with an 86% probability for the NO outcome. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a consensus that Musk's tweeting activity will be limited during this timeframe.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors the NO outcome at 86%.
• 2 Pulse AI's prediction is slightly more optimistic for YES at 17.5%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 74 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 16 12:00 PM ET to March 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.