Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?

Market indicates low likelihood of Musk tweeting 40-64 times from March 7-9, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong preference for the 'NO' outcome, with an 80.45% probability against the 'YES' outcome at 19.55%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus that Musk is unlikely to tweet within the specified range during this period.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a strong consensus among participants.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns may influence future expectations.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, with only 21 hours remaining.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 7 12:00 PM ET to March 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.