Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?

Market strongly favors that Elon Musk will post 40 or more tweets during the specified dates.

The prediction market indicates a 100% probability that Elon Musk will post 40 or more tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 99%, suggesting a high level of confidence in this outcome. The edge of 1 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current sentiment and analysis.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Historical data shows Musk's tweeting frequency is typically high.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable with no significant fluctuations.
• 4 The time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future predictions.
• 5 Confidence level of 95/100 suggests strong agreement among market participants.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 12 12:00 PM ET to March 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.