Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Market strongly favors Musk posting 40 or more tweets during the specified period.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (98.85%) that Elon Musk will post 40 or more tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability, which also suggests a low likelihood of fewer tweets, although it is slightly higher at 4.65%. The edge of 3.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Musk tweeting more than 40 times.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing perspectives on Musk's tweeting habits.
• 3 Historical behavior of Musk indicates a tendency to tweet frequently during high-profile events.
• 4 The market shows low liquidity, which may affect price stability.
• 5 Time pressure of 48 hours may lead to rapid shifts in sentiment as the date approaches.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 14 12:00 PM ET to March 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.