Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?

Market predicts Musk will post more than 40 tweets from March 19-21, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the NO outcome, indicating that participants believe Elon Musk will exceed 40 tweets during the specified period. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for the YES outcome. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 67 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES than the market.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 19 12:00 PM ET to March 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.