Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Market favors Elon Musk posting more than 40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will exceed 40 tweets during the specified period, with a NO probability of 92.8%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus that Musk's tweeting activity will be high. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability strongly favors more than 40 tweets.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, creating urgency in market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 30 12:00 PM ET to April 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.