Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?

Market strongly favors that Musk will post 40 or more tweets during the specified dates.

The prediction market shows a definitive NO at 100%, indicating a strong consensus that Elon Musk will not post fewer than 40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a very low likelihood of him posting under 40 tweets. With high confidence in this assessment, the market appears fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against fewer than 40 tweets.
• 2 The probability of YES is extremely low at 0%, indicating strong confidence in the NO outcome.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns suggest Musk often exceeds 40 tweets in short time frames.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, but the current confidence level is high at 95/100.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 9 12:00 PM ET to March 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.