Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to post 400-419 tweets in the specified timeframe.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will not post between 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026, with a NO probability of 94.4%. The AI model also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a consensus on the likelihood of lower tweet activity during this period.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a well-established consensus among participants.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may support the low tweet volume expectation.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current predictions.
• 5 The time to expiry allows for potential shifts in Musk's engagement strategy.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 17 12:00 PM ET to March 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.