Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 400 tweets.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.05%) that Elon Musk will post fewer than 400 tweets during the specified period. This contrasts with the Pulse AI's lower probability of 2.95% for the same outcome, suggesting a significant divergence in expectations between the market and AI analysis.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors the NO outcome at 99.05%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher likelihood for YES at 2.95%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 shows moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 42 hours, adding urgency to market movements.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 3 12:00 PM ET to March 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.