Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in April 2026?

Market strongly favors that Musk will not tweet 400-419 times in April 2026.

The prediction market shows a significant bias towards the 'NO' outcome, indicating low expectations for Musk to tweet within the specified range. With a market probability of 99.85% for 'NO' and a Pulse AI probability of 97.85%, the consensus suggests that the likelihood of this event occurring is minimal.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a low tweet count from Musk.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a strong belief in the 'NO' outcome.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns suggest Musk typically tweets less frequently than the specified range.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate, with over 1200 hours until the market expires.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.