Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Low probability for Musk posting 420-439 tweets in the specified week.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Elon Musk will not post between 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026, with a market probability of 95.3% for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a consensus that aligns closely with the market's pricing.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is minimal.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 314 hours, adding urgency to the market.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 17 12:00 PM ET to March 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.