Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Low likelihood of Elon Musk posting 420-439 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against the possibility of Elon Musk posting 420-439 tweets during the specified period, with a market probability of 99.55% for 'NO'. The AI probability also aligns closely, suggesting limited expectation for such tweet volume based on current trends and historical behavior.

• 1 Market shows a strong preference for 'NO' at 99.55%.
• 2 AI model predicts a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 2.45%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 37 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 3 12:00 PM ET to March 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.