Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in April 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk posting 420-439 tweets in April 2026.

The prediction market shows a significant preference for the NO outcome, with a probability of 99.85%. The Pulse AI also aligns closely, indicating a low likelihood of Musk posting within the specified tweet range. Given the current probabilities, the market appears fairly priced with a moderate level of confidence.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests stability in expectations.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence future predictions.
• 4 Liquidity in this market is relatively low, impacting price movements.
• 5 Time until expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.