Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in March 2026?

Low likelihood of Elon Musk tweeting 420-439 times in March 2026.

The market shows a strong consensus against the possibility of Elon Musk posting 420-439 tweets in March 2026, with a 99.95% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also supports this view, indicating a low likelihood of such tweet volume based on current trends and historical data.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 2.05%.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 80/100, indicating strong market sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 517 hours, adding urgency to the predictions.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.