Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to 20, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 440-459 tweets during the specified period, with a NO probability of 96.35%. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 94.35%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of 2. Confidence in this prediction is moderate at 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest limited expectation of high tweet volume.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns may influence future predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 219 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 13 12:00 PM ET to March 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.