Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Low probability of Elon Musk posting 440-459 tweets in the specified week.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Elon Musk posting between 440-459 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026, with a market probability of 98.9% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 3.1% for 'YES', indicating a general expectation that his tweeting activity will not reach this level during the specified timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The edge suggests the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns indicate lower activity levels.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, supporting the current probabilities.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 246 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.