Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to post 440-459 tweets in the specified week.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 440-459 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026, with a 97.65% probability for 'NO'. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 95.65%, indicating a well-aligned market sentiment and confidence level.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is minimal.
• 3 The confidence level of 75 indicates moderate certainty in the market's stance.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 243 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.