Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Low probability for Musk posting 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Elon Musk will not post between 440-459 tweets during the specified period, with a market probability of 96.2% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, suggesting a consensus on this outcome, though with slightly higher uncertainty.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns suggest lower tweet volumes during this timeframe.
• 3 Market pricing indicates a fair valuation with minimal edge.
• 4 The confidence level of 75/100 reflects moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time pressure is limited with only 104 hours until the market's expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 6 12:00 PM ET to March 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.