Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to tweet 460-479 times in the specified period.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026, with a NO probability of 97.25%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge towards the NO outcome.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Musk's tweet volume.
• 2 Market probability indicates a strong belief that Musk will tweet less than 460 times.
• 3 The confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in the NO prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 314 hours, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 The edge of 2 indicates that the market is likely well-priced based on available information.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 17 12:00 PM ET to March 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.