Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Low probability for Musk posting 460-479 tweets from March 6-13, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the NO outcome, with a probability of 97.2%. This suggests that participants believe it is unlikely for Elon Musk to post within the specified tweet range during the given timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a consensus on low tweet volume expectations.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower activity in this timeframe.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current odds.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with 106 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 6 12:00 PM ET to March 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.