Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in April 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 460-479 times in April 2026.

The prediction market shows a high probability of NO at 99.7%, indicating a strong consensus against Musk posting 460-479 tweets in April 2026. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of such activity. With a confidence level of 75/100, the market appears fairly priced given the current data.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower tweet volumes.
• 3 Market probability indicates a strong consensus against high tweet frequency.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, supporting the current market pricing.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.