Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to tweet 480-499 times in the specified period.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Elon Musk will not post between 480-499 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026, with a market probability of 98.95% for 'NO'. The AI model also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 3.05%, suggesting a consensus that aligns closely with the market's stance.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 98.95%.
• 2 AI probability suggests a slight chance for 'YES' at 3.05%.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 240 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 13 12:00 PM ET to March 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.