Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will tweet less than 500 times in March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus that Elon Musk will not post between 480-499 tweets during the specified period, with a probability of only 2.25% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of reaching that tweet count, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is significantly lower than the AI's estimate.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 75/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 312 hours.
• 5 The market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 2.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 17 12:00 PM ET to March 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.