Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to post 480-499 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 480-499 tweets during the specified period, with a 99.95% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating that the market is likely well-priced given the current probabilities and confidence levels.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 46 hours, indicating urgency.
• 5 Edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced based on current data.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 3 12:00 PM ET to March 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.